USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

In today's analysis of the USD/CAD currency pair, we observed a significant decline leading us to reconsider the current market dynamics.

Daily Pivots are as follows: (S1) 1.4406; (P) 1.4446; (R1) 1.4520. The recent fall below the support level of 1.4301 indicates a possible short-term peak at 1.4484. This reversal is further supported by a bearish divergence condition noted in the 4-hour MACD indicator.

Current Intraday Bias

The intraday bias has shifted back towards a downward trend. It appears that the movement from 1.4484 is part of a corrective phase following the earlier rally from the low of 1.3418. Traders may target the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently set at 1.4193, or further to the 38.2% retracement level of the swing from 1.3418 to 1.4484, which sits at 1.4077. For the present, the near-term risks will favor a decline as long as the resistance at 1.4484 holds steady.

Long-Term Outlook

Looking at the bigger picture, the uptrend that began from the low of 1.2005 in 2021 is still active, with a potential to retest the key resistance zone between 1.4667 and 1.4689 (previous highs from 2020 and 2015). A decisive break above this area will confirm that the long-term upward trend is resuming. The next objective in this scenario would be the 100% projection from 1.2401 to 1.3976, calculated from the 1.3418 low, positioning around 1.4993. The medium-term outlook remains bullish as long as the resistance level at 1.3976 (the 2022 high) is respected, even if we experience a deeper pullback in the interim.

USD, CAD, pivots