EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

As of now, the intraday bias regarding the EUR/USD currency pair remains neutral. Key daily pivot points have been established with support at (S1) 1.0311, the pivot point (P) at 1.0373, and resistance at (R1) 1.0478. Currently, the resistance level at 1.0435 is holding firm, suggesting that another decline might be more likely at this moment.

If the price breaks down firmly below the 1.0176 level, it could signal a continuation of the broader downward trend that began at 1.1213. Conversely, a decisive breakout above the 1.0435 resistance could indicate a short-term bottom has formed, which could lead to a stronger rebound. This rebound might push the pair up to the 38.2% retracement level of the movement from 1.1213 to 1.0176, which is located at 1.0572.

Long-Term Trends

Examining the bigger picture, the decline from the high of 1.1274 observed in 2023 may represent either the second leg of a corrective pattern originating from the low of 0.9534 reached in 2022, or it could be a continuation of a longer-term downtrend. A sustained break below the critical 61.8% retracement level of the range from 0.9534 to 1.1274, situated at 1.0199, would likely reinforce the bearish outlook and set the stage for a return to the 0.9534 level.

At present, the overall outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair remains bearish as long as the resistance at 1.0629 remains intact. Even if a strong rebound occurs, the bias will remain downward unless this level is breached decisively.

Forex, Analysis, Trends