EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0464; (P) 1.0496; (R1) 1.0518; More...

In the early US session, the EUR/USD pair has seen a notable dip but has managed to remain above the crucial support level of 1.0400. As such, the current intraday bias remains neutral. A decisive break below 1.0400 would suggest that the corrective pattern that started at this level has come to an end, potentially shifting the intraday bias back to a downside trend. This could lead to a retest of the support zone ranging from 1.0176 to 1.0210.

Overall, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD appears bearish while the 38.2% retracement level from 1.1213 to 1.0176, situated at 1.0572, remains intact. If there is another recovery attempt, this retracement level could provide significant resistance.

Looking at the bigger picture, market participants are particularly focused on the 61.8% retracement level, which falls between 0.9534 (the low from 2022) and 1.1274 (the high from 2024), sitting at 1.0199. A sustained break below this level would support the notion of a medium-term bearish trend reversal and could pave the way for a return to the low of 0.9534. Conversely, if there is a reversal at 1.0199, it would suggest that the price movements from 1.1274 represent merely a corrective pattern that has already concluded.

EUR/USD, trading, markets