Amplify Energy (AMPY) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Amplify Energy (AMPY) is expected to announce its earnings for the quarter ending September 2024, with analysts predicting a significant year-over-year increase in earnings alongside rising revenues. This consensus forecast serves as a crucial factor in evaluating the company's financial outlook, but how closely the actual results align with these estimates could significantly impact its stock price.

The earnings report is scheduled to be released on November 6, 2024. If the reported figures exceed these expectations, it could propel the stock higher. Conversely, any shortfall may lead to a decline in stock value.

Management's insights regarding business conditions shared during the earnings call will play a key role in determining not just the immediate market reaction, but also the outlook for future earnings. Therefore, understanding the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise is important.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

The consensus among analysts is that Amplify Energy will report earnings of $0.32 per share for the upcoming quarter, reflecting a remarkable year-over-year increase of +194.1%. Furthermore, a revenue projection of $78.87 million is anticipated, marking a rise of 2.7% compared to the same quarter last year.

Estimate Revisions Trend

Over the past 30 days, the estimates for EPS have been revised upward by 11.11%, indicating that analysts have reassessed their forecasts positively during this timeframe. It's important for investors to remember that individual analysts' revisions may not be accurately reflected in the overall consensus.

Earnings Whisper

Forecast revisions close to a company's earnings release offer insights into the market's perception of the business environment during the reporting period. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model is built around this concept.

This model compares the Most Accurate Estimate of earnings to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent figure that signifies the latest analyst forecasts. The principle is that analysts modifying their estimates just before an earnings announcement often possess the most updated and relevant information.

A positive Earnings ESP suggests a higher likelihood that actual earnings will surpass the consensus estimate, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold). Historical data shows that stocks with these features successfully beat estimates nearly 70% of the time, with a solid Zacks Rank enhancing the predictability of a positive surprise.

It’s crucial to note that a negative Earnings ESP does not guarantee an earnings miss. Data indicates it's challenging to accurately forecast an earnings beat for stocks with negative Earnings ESP outcomes or a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Amplify Energy?

For Amplify Energy, the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, indicating no analysts have provided divergent views from the existing consensus. This has produced an Earnings ESP of 0%.

The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3, which adds to the uncertainty regarding its potential to exceed the EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?

Analysts frequently consider a company's historical performance against consensus estimates when making their projections for future earnings. Evaluating past surprises can be helpful in forecasting future results.

In the previous quarter, expectations for Amplify Energy were set at $0.31 per share, but the actual earnings came in at $0.17, resulting in a disappointing surprise of -45.16%. Over the last four quarters, the company has exceeded consensus EPS estimates only once.

Bottom Line

An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock price movements. There are instances where stocks decline despite delivering good earnings due to other underlying factors that let investors down. Conversely, unforeseen positive developments might uplift a stock despite a disappointing earnings report.

Nevertheless, investing in stocks anticipated to outperform earnings expectations generally improves the chances of success. This underscores the need to evaluate a company’s Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank prior to its quarterly earnings release. For those looking for promising investment opportunities, utilizing the Earnings ESP Filter can be invaluable.

Currently, Amplify Energy does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings surprise, but it’s crucial for investors to analyze various factors that might affect their decision to invest or hold off until the earnings release.

An Industry Player's Expected Results

Another notable company in the oil and gas sector, Gulfport Energy (GPOR), is also set to announce earnings, projecting $2.96 per share for the third quarter ending September 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of +327.7%. The anticipated revenue for Gulfport is $279.57 million, which marks a 4.8% increase year-over-year. Although, over the last 30 days, Gulfport's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.2%, leading to an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, mirroring the Most Accurate Estimate. Coupling this with a Zacks Rank of #5 (Strong Sell), leads to a challenging environment for predicting an EPS beat for Gulfport. Historically, the company managed to surpass EPS estimates in just one of the past four quarters.

Stay informed about upcoming earnings reports by following the latest updates on the earnings calendar.

Earnings, Growth, Estimates